The Hindu Editorial • October 26, 2026 • Read Original

The northeast monsoon is more unpredictable, and the south must be wary

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The Hindu Read Original

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Analysis of editorial from The Hindu newspaper on October 26, 2026

Wicked surprise: On the northeast monsoon

The northeast monsoon is more unpredictable, and the south must be wary

Environment Northeast MonsoonEl NinoSouthwest MonsoonIMD Rainfall ForecastDisaster Preparedness

Sentences

Sentence 1 of 14

English Original

As India recovers from a monsoon-deficit year, there is both hope and trepidation regarding the prospects for that ‘other monsoon’, or the ‘northeast monsoon’.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

As India recovers from a monsoon-deficit year,

While India is trying to overcome the effects of a year with less-than-normal monsoon rain,

Part 2

there is both hope and

people feel a mixture of positive expectation and deep worry

Part 3

regarding the for that ‘other monsoon’,

about the expected chances and outcomes of the second rainy season,

Part 4

or the ‘northeast monsoon’.

which is officially known as the northeast monsoon.

Context and Background

The Northeast Monsoon (Retreating Monsoon)

The Northeast Monsoon occurs from October to December when seasonal winds reverse from land towards the Bay of Bengal, gathering moisture. Unlike the Southwest Monsoon which covers all of India, this retreating monsoon primarily waters southern peninsular areas, contributing nearly 48% of Tamil Nadu’s total annual rainfall.

Sentence 2 of 14

English Original

While contributing only around a quarter of India’s annual rainfall, it is largely focused on the south-east peninsula regions of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Keralam.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

While contributing only around a quarter of India’s annual rainfall,

Even though it provides only about 25 percent of the rain India receives in a year,

Part 2

it is largely focused

its showers are concentrated mainly

Part 3

on the south-east regions

over the southern and eastern land areas surrounded by water on three sides,

Part 4

of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Keralam.

including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra’s coast, Rayalaseema, southern Karnataka inland, and Kerala.

Context and Background

Core Beneficiaries of the Northeast Monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) designates five meteorological subdivisions as the core region for the northeast monsoon: Tamil Nadu (including Puducherry), Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka. For Tamil Nadu, this season is crucial, contributing approximately 48% of its annual precipitation compared to 35% from the southwest monsoon.

Sentence 3 of 14

English Original

The southwest monsoon, influenced by a strengthening El Niño, has already left its desiccating mark.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The southwest monsoon,

The primary summer rainy season in India (from June to September),

Part 2

influenced by a strengthening ,

affected by the warming of Pacific waters known as El Niño,

Part 3

has already left its mark.

has already produced dry, moisture-depleting effects across the country.

Context and Background

El Niño and the Indian Monsoon

El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In India, strong El Niño episodes frequently suppress the southwest monsoon winds and reduce convective rainfall, historically triggering agricultural droughts in nearly 60% of El Niño years.

Sentence 4 of 14

English Original

Rainfall from June-September was 759.4 mm against 868.6 mm, a 12.6% deficit, the driest in 11 years.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Rainfall from June-September

The total rain received during the four months of the summer monsoon

Part 2

was 759.4 mm against 868.6 mm,

amounted to only 759.4 millimeters compared to the normal average of 868.6 millimeters,

Part 3

a 12.6% ,

which represented a shortfall of 12.6 percent,

Part 4

the driest in 11 years.

making it the lowest rainfall recorded in over a decade.

Context and Background

Long Period Average (LPA) of the Southwest Monsoon

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) evaluates seasonal rainfall against the Long Period Average (LPA), currently calculated as 868.6 mm based on the 1971–2020 period. Rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA is categorized as ‘normal’; a nationwide shortfall exceeding 10% indicates significant climatic distress.

Sentence 5 of 14

English Original

This has impacted kharif sowing and is reflected in food inflation.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

This has impacted sowing

This rain shortfall has harmed the planting of summer crops (like rice and pulses),

Part 2

and is reflected in .

and is now showing up as rising prices for everyday food items.

Context and Background

Kharif Crops and Monsoon Dependency

Kharif crops (such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds, and cotton) depend heavily on the southwest monsoon for irrigation across India. A substantial rainfall deficit during the June–September window delays sowing, diminishes crop acreage, and causes shortages that directly fuel food inflation.

Sentence 6 of 14

English Original

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that this year, the northeast monsoon rainfall, spanning October to December, would likely be ‘normal’, meaning in line with a 50-year average and within a 12% error window.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said

India’s official weather forecasting agency stated

Part 2

that this year, the northeast monsoon rainfall,

that during the current year, the rain from the northeast monsoon,

Part 3

October to December,

which lasts across the three-month period from October through December,

Part 4

would likely be ‘normal’,

is expected to reach standard, average levels,

Part 5

meaning in line with a 50-year average and within a 12% error window.

which means matching the 50-year historical average with a permitted variance of up to 12 percent above or below.

Context and Background

IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), established in 1875 under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, is India’s principal agency for meteorological observations and weather forecasting. IMD defines ‘normal’ rainfall as precipitation falling within ±10% (for the southwest monsoon) or ±12% (for the northeast monsoon) of the 50-year Long Period Average (LPA).

Sentence 7 of 14

English Original

Most parts of the country, it said, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, except some areas of northwest India and southern parts of peninsular India, where rainfall is likely to be normal to above-normal.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Most parts of the country,

The majority of regions across India,

Part 2

it said, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall,

according to the agency, are projected to get less rain than usual,

Part 3

except some areas of northwest India and southern parts of India,

apart from certain sectors in northwest India and the southern peninsula,

Part 4

where rainfall is likely to be normal to above-normal.

where rain levels are anticipated to be average or even heavier than normal.

Sentence 8 of 14

English Original

The wide error window, however, is far less precise than its forecasts for the southwest monsoon with its margin of 5%, and can sometimes make the northeast monsoon the bearer of nasty surprises.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The wide error window, however,

However, this broad margin for potential forecasting errors

Part 2

is far less

is much less accurate and exact

Part 3

than its forecasts for the southwest monsoon with its margin of 5%,

compared to predictions for the summer monsoon which vary by only 5 percent,

Part 4

and can sometimes make the northeast monsoon

and this uncertainty can occasionally turn the winter monsoon

Part 5

the .

into a source of sudden, severe, and unpleasant weather disasters.

Context and Background

IMD Forecast Precision: Southwest vs Northeast Monsoon

The IMD’s seasonal forecasts for the southwest monsoon operate with a narrower error margin of ±5% because it is an all-India macro-system. By contrast, the northeast monsoon is highly localized over the southern peninsula and governed by erratic Bay of Bengal depressions, necessitating a wider ±12% error band that permits large sudden swings.

Sentence 9 of 14

English Original

For instance, December 1, 2015, saw the city of Chennai deluged by its heaviest rainfall in 24-hours in over a century; at least 500 lives were lost and 18 lakh people displaced in the State.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

For instance, December 1, 2015,

To give a clear example, on the single day of December 1, 2015,

Part 2

saw the city of Chennai

the major southern city of Chennai was completely submerged by severe flooding

Part 3

by its heaviest rainfall in 24-hours in over a century;

due to the highest one-day downpour recorded in more than one hundred years;

Part 4

at least 500 lives were lost

no fewer than 500 people died,

Part 5

and 18 lakh people in the State.

and 1.8 million residents were forced to flee their damaged homes across Tamil Nadu.

Context and Background

2015 South India and Chennai Floods

In November–December 2015, extreme precipitation driven by a potent El Niño triggered historical flooding across Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. On December 1, 2015, stations around Chennai recorded up to 494 mm of rain within 24 hours, breaching the Adyar river banks, submerging airport runways, and causing catastrophic destruction.

Sentence 10 of 14

English Original

That year and the present are linked by a common thread: a powerful El Niño.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

That year and the present

The flood year of 2015 and the current year

Part 2

are linked by a :

share an identical recurring weather factor:

Part 3

a powerful El Niño.

the presence of strong ocean-warming conditions known as El Niño.

Sentence 11 of 14

English Original

Associated with the heating up of the Central Pacific, the El Niño is linked to the drying up of the southwest monsoon rains but also yoked — not always — with a vigorous northeast monsoon.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Associated with the heating up of the Central Pacific,

Connected to the abnormal warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean,

Part 2

the El Niño is linked

the El Niño climate pattern is known to cause

Part 3

to the drying up of the southwest monsoon rains

a failure or reduction in India’s summer monsoon rains,

Part 4

but also — not always —

yet is also paired, though not in every single instance,

Part 5

with a northeast monsoon.

with an unusually energetic and heavy winter monsoon in the south.

Context and Background

The Paradox of El Niño and Indian Monsoons

While El Niño suppresses the southwest monsoon by altering Walker circulation, its impact on the northeast monsoon can be completely contrary. Elevated Pacific sea-surface temperatures frequently deflect cyclonic storms into the Bay of Bengal, periodically bringing intense, torrential deluges to Tamil Nadu despite an overall dry summer.

Sentence 12 of 14

English Original

Other than in 2015, several El Niño years, such as 1997 and 2009, have been associated with above-normal rainfall between October and December in Tamil Nadu though El Niño years, such as 2002 and 1982, saw a poor northeast monsoon (and a predictably bad southwest monsoon).

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Other than in 2015, several El Niño years, such as 1997 and 2009,

Apart from 2015, multiple previous El Niño years including 1997 and 2009

Part 2

have been associated with above-normal rainfall

have brought significantly more rain than average

Part 3

between October and December in Tamil Nadu

during the winter monsoon months across Tamil Nadu,

Part 4

though El Niño years, such as 2002 and 1982,

even though other El Niño years like 2002 and 1982

Part 5

saw a poor northeast monsoon (and a predictably bad southwest monsoon).

experienced weak winter rains along with the usual expected failure of the summer monsoon.

Context and Background

Historical Monsoon Variability in El Niño Years

Historical IMD data indicates that El Niño impacts on the northeast monsoon are highly inconsistent. During the intense El Niño events of 1997 and 2009, Tamil Nadu received substantial excess rainfall (+28% and +21% above normal). In contrast, the major El Niño years of 1982 and 2002 suffered severe droughts in both the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons.

Sentence 13 of 14

English Original

While the climate mechanisms linking a vigorous northeast monsoon and El Niño are still to be fully understood, it appears the warming patterns of the El Niño tend to deflect rain-bearing cyclonic circulations in unpredictable ways.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

While the climate linking a vigorous northeast monsoon and El Niño

Although the exact scientific processes that connect an intense winter monsoon to El Niño

Part 2

are still to be fully understood,

have not yet been completely deciphered by climate scientists,

Part 3

it appears

observations suggest that

Part 4

the warming patterns of the El Niño

the unusual heat distributions created across the Pacific by El Niño

Part 5

tend to rain-bearing

have a habit of turning and pushing rain-carrying storm systems off their normal courses

Part 6

in unpredictable ways.

in sudden manners that are hard to foresee in advance.

Context and Background

Cyclonic Circulations and Bay of Bengal Dynamics

During the northeast monsoon, weather systems develop over the south Bay of Bengal and typically track west-northwest towards coastal Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. El Niño-induced atmospheric heating alters upper-level steering winds, either deflecting rain-bearing depressions away or causing them to stall and dump catastrophic torrents over localized pockets.

Sentence 14 of 14

English Original

Therefore, the Centre and the southern States ought to take enough precautions: from clearing up stormwater drains, fortifying shelters, making provisions for infrastructure damage and tightening weather warning forecasts to prepare for torrents.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Therefore, and the southern States

For this reason, both the Union government in New Delhi and the southern state administrations

Part 2

ought to take enough precautions:

must implement sufficient protective safety measures:

Part 3

from clearing up stormwater drains, shelters,

such as removing blockages from rainwater channels, strengthening emergency cyclone relief shelters,

Part 4

making for infrastructure damage

allocating emergency resources and planning for potential destruction of roads, bridges, and utilities,

Part 5

and tightening weather warning forecasts to prepare for .

and improving the accuracy and timeliness of storm alerts to get ready for violent downpours.

Context and Background

Urban Flood Mitigation and Coastal Preparedness

Rapid urban growth and the encroachment of wetlands in southern coastal cities like Chennai and Puducherry have severely compromised natural drainage channels. Disaster management guidelines emphasize de-silting stormwater networks, setting up early flood-warning radars, and preparing multipurpose evacuation shelters prior to the peak October–December monsoon window.

Sentence 1 of 14

Sentences Breakdown

Editorial Summary

5-Point Summary

1 Following a deficit southwest monsoon, attention has shifted to the northeast monsoon which is vital for southern peninsular India.
2 The southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6% deficit due to El Niño, dampening kharif sowing and raising food inflation.
3 Although the IMD predicts a normal northeast monsoon, its wide 12% error margin makes the forecast much less precise.
4 Past El Niño years such as 2015 show that the season can trigger extreme, localized downpours and devastating floods.
5 The Centre and southern States must clear drainage systems and fortify infrastructure to prepare for unpredictable cyclonic downpours.

Tone of the Editorial

Analytical

Why this tone?

The editorial objectively evaluates rainfall data, explains the erratic climatic relationship between El Niño and monsoon dynamics, and cautions authorities to maintain high disaster preparedness.

Sentence 1 of 14

As India recovers from a monsoon-deficit year, there is both hope and trepidation regarding the prospects for that ‘other monsoon’, or the ‘northeast monsoon’.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

As India recovers from a monsoon-deficit year,

While India is trying to overcome the effects of a year with less-than-normal monsoon rain,

Part 2

there is both hope and trepidation

people feel a mixture of positive expectation and deep worry

Part 3

regarding the prospects for that ‘other monsoon’,

about the expected chances and outcomes of the second rainy season,

Part 4

or the ‘northeast monsoon’.

which is officially known as the northeast monsoon.

Sentence 2 of 14

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

While contributing only around a quarter of India’s annual rainfall,

Even though it provides only about 25 percent of the rain India receives in a year,

Part 2

it is largely focused

its showers are concentrated mainly

Part 3

on the south-east peninsula regions

over the southern and eastern land areas surrounded by water on three sides,

Part 4

of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Keralam.

including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra’s coast, Rayalaseema, southern Karnataka inland, and Kerala.

Sentence 3 of 14

The southwest monsoon, influenced by a strengthening El Niño, has already left its desiccating mark.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The southwest monsoon,

The primary summer rainy season in India (from June to September),

Part 2

influenced by a strengthening El Niño,

affected by the warming of Pacific waters known as El Niño,

Part 3

has already left its desiccating mark.

has already produced dry, moisture-depleting effects across the country.

Sentence 4 of 14

Rainfall from June-September was 759.4 mm against 868.6 mm, a 12.6% deficit, the driest in 11 years.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Rainfall from June-September

The total rain received during the four months of the summer monsoon

Part 2

was 759.4 mm against 868.6 mm,

amounted to only 759.4 millimeters compared to the normal average of 868.6 millimeters,

Part 3

a 12.6% deficit,

which represented a shortfall of 12.6 percent,

Part 4

the driest in 11 years.

making it the lowest rainfall recorded in over a decade.

Sentence 5 of 14

This has impacted kharif sowing and is reflected in food inflation.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

This has impacted kharif sowing

This rain shortfall has harmed the planting of summer crops (like rice and pulses),

Part 2

and is reflected in food inflation.

and is now showing up as rising prices for everyday food items.

Sentence 6 of 14

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said

India’s official weather forecasting agency stated

Part 2

that this year, the northeast monsoon rainfall,

that during the current year, the rain from the northeast monsoon,

Part 3

spanning October to December,

which lasts across the three-month period from October through December,

Part 4

would likely be ‘normal’,

is expected to reach standard, average levels,

Part 5

meaning in line with a 50-year average and within a 12% error window.

which means matching the 50-year historical average with a permitted variance of up to 12 percent above or below.

Sentence 7 of 14

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Most parts of the country,

The majority of regions across India,

Part 2

it said, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall,

according to the agency, are projected to get less rain than usual,

Part 3

except some areas of northwest India and southern parts of peninsular India,

apart from certain sectors in northwest India and the southern peninsula,

Part 4

where rainfall is likely to be normal to above-normal.

where rain levels are anticipated to be average or even heavier than normal.

Sentence 8 of 14

The wide error window, however, is far less precise than its forecasts for the southwest monsoon with its margin of 5%, and can sometimes make the northeast monsoon the bearer of nasty surprises.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The wide error window, however,

However, this broad margin for potential forecasting errors

Part 2

is far less precise

is much less accurate and exact

Part 3

than its forecasts for the southwest monsoon with its margin of 5%,

compared to predictions for the summer monsoon which vary by only 5 percent,

Part 4

and can sometimes make the northeast monsoon

and this uncertainty can occasionally turn the winter monsoon

Part 5

the bearer of nasty surprises.

into a source of sudden, severe, and unpleasant weather disasters.

Sentence 9 of 14

For instance, December 1, 2015, saw the city of Chennai deluged by its heaviest rainfall in 24-hours in over a century; at least 500 lives were lost and 18 lakh people displaced in the State.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

For instance, December 1, 2015,

To give a clear example, on the single day of December 1, 2015,

Part 2

saw the city of Chennai deluged

the major southern city of Chennai was completely submerged by severe flooding

Part 3

by its heaviest rainfall in 24-hours in over a century;

due to the highest one-day downpour recorded in more than one hundred years;

Part 4

at least 500 lives were lost

no fewer than 500 people died,

Part 5

and 18 lakh people displaced in the State.

and 1.8 million residents were forced to flee their damaged homes across Tamil Nadu.

Sentence 10 of 14

That year and the present are linked by a common thread: a powerful El Niño.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

That year and the present

The flood year of 2015 and the current year

Part 2

are linked by a common thread:

share an identical recurring weather factor:

Part 3

a powerful El Niño.

the presence of strong ocean-warming conditions known as El Niño.

Sentence 11 of 14

Associated with the heating up of the Central Pacific, the El Niño is linked to the drying up of the southwest monsoon rains but also yoked — not always — with a vigorous northeast monsoon.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Associated with the heating up of the Central Pacific,

Connected to the abnormal warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean,

Part 2

the El Niño is linked

the El Niño climate pattern is known to cause

Part 3

to the drying up of the southwest monsoon rains

a failure or reduction in India’s summer monsoon rains,

Part 4

but also yoked — not always —

yet is also paired, though not in every single instance,

Part 5

with a vigorous northeast monsoon.

with an unusually energetic and heavy winter monsoon in the south.

Sentence 12 of 14

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Other than in 2015, several El Niño years, such as 1997 and 2009,

Apart from 2015, multiple previous El Niño years including 1997 and 2009

Part 2

have been associated with above-normal rainfall

have brought significantly more rain than average

Part 3

between October and December in Tamil Nadu

during the winter monsoon months across Tamil Nadu,

Part 4

though El Niño years, such as 2002 and 1982,

even though other El Niño years like 2002 and 1982

Part 5

saw a poor northeast monsoon (and a predictably bad southwest monsoon).

experienced weak winter rains along with the usual expected failure of the summer monsoon.

Sentence 13 of 14

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

While the climate mechanisms linking a vigorous northeast monsoon and El Niño

Although the exact scientific processes that connect an intense winter monsoon to El Niño

Part 2

are still to be fully understood,

have not yet been completely deciphered by climate scientists,

Part 3

it appears

observations suggest that

Part 4

the warming patterns of the El Niño

the unusual heat distributions created across the Pacific by El Niño

Part 5

tend to deflect rain-bearing cyclonic circulations

have a habit of turning and pushing rain-carrying storm systems off their normal courses

Part 6

in unpredictable ways.

in sudden manners that are hard to foresee in advance.

Sentence 14 of 14

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Therefore, the Centre and the southern States

For this reason, both the Union government in New Delhi and the southern state administrations

Part 2

ought to take enough precautions:

must implement sufficient protective safety measures:

Part 3

from clearing up stormwater drains, fortifying shelters,

such as removing blockages from rainwater channels, strengthening emergency cyclone relief shelters,

Part 4

making provisions for infrastructure damage

allocating emergency resources and planning for potential destruction of roads, bridges, and utilities,

Part 5

and tightening weather warning forecasts to prepare for torrents.

and improving the accuracy and timeliness of storm alerts to get ready for violent downpours.

Reading Comprehension

Practice questions based on this editorial

Reading Comprehension - Northeast Monsoon and El Niño

Practice reading comprehension questions based on the editorial about the northeast monsoon, its unpredictability under El Niño, and disaster preparedness.

7 Questions Passing: 50%

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