The southwest monsoon contributes over 70% of India’s annual rainfall and drives its agricultural economy. In 2026, the progress of this monsoon was severely disrupted as deficits jumped to 43% in June. A major driver is El Niño, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Historically, El Niño weakens trade winds, suppressing the moisture flow towards India and leading to dry spells. NOAA (USA) and the IMD (India) monitor these ocean temperatures to issue seasonal rainfall forecasts, with ‘moderate-to-strong’ indicating high probability of a below-normal monsoon.

The Indian monsoon relies on strong easterly trade winds that blow across the equator, gathering moisture from the Indian Ocean and carrying it to the subcontinent. Under normal conditions, solar heating warms the western Pacific Ocean, creating low pressure that causes warm, moist air to rise (convection), form clouds, and rain over Asia. This is part of the Walker Circulation. During an El Niño, however, the central and eastern Pacific warm up, causing the rising branch of air to shift eastward. This alters the Walker Circulation, leading to sinking air (subsidence) over India, which suppresses vertical air movement, weakens the trade winds, and stops rainclouds from forming.

While global events like El Niño set the seasonal baseline, regional weather systems like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) act as active modulators. The MJO is a traveling pulse of convective rainclouds that moves eastward along the equator every 30 to 60 days. If the MJO is over the Indian Ocean (Phases 3–6), it boosts rainfall; in an ‘unfavourable phase’ (outside this range), it suppresses it. The IOD is an ocean temperature oscillation across the Indian Ocean. A positive IOD - warmer waters in the west (near Africa) compared to the east (near Indonesia) - boosts the monsoon and can buffer the drought-like effects of an El Niño. A neutral or negative IOD offers no such buffer, leaving the monsoon exposed to El Niño’s full impact.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) monitors monsoon rainfall by dividing the country into four major geographical regions: Northwest India, Central India, the South Peninsula, and East & Northeast India. Rainfall deviations are calculated against the Long Period Average (LPA), which represents the 50-year average rainfall (currently 1971–2020). While a surplus of 5% in the Northwest is categorized as ‘normal’ (as it falls within the ±19% deviation band), deficits of 63% in Central India and 43% in the Northeast are highly critical and categorized as ‘deficient’ (departure from LPA by more than 19%), highlighting a severe spatial inequality in early monsoon distribution.

In India, the southwest monsoon spans from June to September, but the precipitation is heavily concentrated. July and August are the wettest months, historically accounting for nearly 66% (two-thirds) of the entire season’s rainfall. This concentration occurs because, by July, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or ‘monsoon trough’ settles fully over the Indo-Gangetic plains, and the intense thermal heating of the Tibetan Plateau maximizes the pressure gradient between the Asian landmass and the Indian Ocean. This mature circulation pulls in strong, deep moisture currents. Consequently, reservoir replenishment and kharif crop sowing are critically dependent on these two months, offering a window for the monsoon to recover despite a deficit start in June.

The Central Water Commission (CWC) is India’s apex technical organization under the Ministry of Jal Shakti. It monitors the live storage status of 166 major reservoirs across the country on a weekly basis, representing a total capacity of approximately 183.565 BCM (Billion Cubic Metres) or about 71% of India’s total storage capacity. These levels are critical for domestic drinking water, industrial use, and winter crop (rabi) irrigation. A storage level of 30.4% in late June 2026 is higher than the 25.1% seen in past El Niño years, indicating that while monsoon rainfall is deficient, India’s initial surface water reserves provide a temporary buffer, preventing immediate panic.

Under emerging El Niño threats, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, in coordination with the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and the Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), prepares District Agriculture Contingency Plans (DACPs). The ministry has identified 315 districts across India vulnerable to monsoon failure. These are prioritized by irrigation coverage: 111 ‘high-priority’ districts have irrigation coverage below 25%, making them highly rain-dependent; 76 ‘medium-priority’ districts have 25–50% irrigation coverage; while 128 ‘low-priority’ districts have irrigation coverage exceeding 50%. High-priority districts receive immediate interventions, such as shifting sowing to drought-resilient crops (millets, pulses, oilseeds) and fast-tracking Kisan Credit Card (KCC) loans.

Agricultural labor in India is highly exposed to thermal stress, which severely impacts human physiology. When standard atmospheric temperatures are combined with high humidity, it is measured as ‘wet-bulb temperature’ (WBT). High WBT prevents the human body from cooling itself via sweat evaporation. When WBT exceeds 31–32°C, moderate physical labor becomes hazardous, causing up to a 50% immediate reduction in work capacity. Outdoor workers suffer from dehydration, heat exhaustion, and chronic kidney diseases. Studies indicate that Indian farm workers lose 54 to 81 working days annually due to heat waves, putting nearly 4.5% of India’s GDP at risk by 2030 and exacerbating rural income distress.

Idukki district in Kerala is India’s primary hub for cardamom cultivation, producing the majority of the nation’s high-quality small cardamom. Cardamom is a highly thermo-sensitive crop that thrives only in cool, humid, and shaded under-canopy environments of the Western Ghats (ideally between 10°C and 35°C). Sustained high temperatures and delayed rains in Idukki have caused severe flower shedding, premature capsule drop, and extended the harvest cycle from 60 days to over 90 days, devastating yields. The Western Ghats is a UNESCO World Heritage site and a global biodiversity hotspot; its unique microclimate supports major plantation crops like tea, coffee, rubber, and black pepper. Searing heat and drought threaten these ecosystems, signaling a broader agricultural crisis across the region.

In India, vegetable inflation is a primary driver of volatility in retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Vegetables have a moderate weight in the CPI basket, but their prices are extremely supply-sensitive and volatile. This is particularly true for the ‘TOP’ group (Tomato, Onion, Potato), which are staple commodities. Deficient or erratic rainfall during the early monsoon shocks vegetable harvests, leading to crop losses and transport disruptions. These supply shocks cause retail vegetable prices to spike rapidly, contributing to a surge in food inflation. Because food represents a major portion of Indian household consumption, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) closely monitors food inflation, as persistent high prices can de-anchor overall inflation expectations and delay interest rate cuts.

India’s agricultural sector is heavily dependent on imported fertilizers, particularly urea, di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), and muriate of potash (MOP), as well as feedstocks like natural gas. In 2026, two major global disruptions severely affected this supply. First, China (the world’s largest exporter of phosphate and urea) imposed strict export quotas and customs curbs to secure its domestic agricultural needs. Second, geopolitical tensions in West Asia escalated, disrupting critical shipping lanes (such as the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz) and spiking energy prices. This combined shock inflated fertilizer input costs for the Indian kharif sowing season, threatening crop yields and government subsidy budgets.

Food inflation is a key component of India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, representing nearly 46% of its total weight. In April 2026, retail food inflation stood at 4.2%. A deficient monsoon directly spikes the prices of supply-sensitive items like vegetables and pulses. When food inflation spikes, it can spill over into non-food sectors (general inflation expectations). This complicates the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) aims to keep headline CPI inflation at 4% (within a 2–6% comfort band). High food inflation forces the RBI to keep interest rates high (repo rate) to prevent price surges, even if high interest rates slow down general economic growth, creating a policy dilemma.

India’s agricultural planning has historically been ‘rain-centric’, meaning cropping patterns, sowing dates, and farm investments are heavily aligned with the calendar dates of the southwest monsoon. However, climate change has made monsoon onset, spatial distribution, and dry spells highly erratic. To build climate resilience, agricultural economists advocate for a shift toward ‘water-centric’ organization. This involves: 1) crop diversification away from water-intensive crops (like paddy and sugarcane in dryland regions) toward climate-resilient millets, pulses, and oilseeds; 2) expansion of micro-irrigation systems (drip and sprinkler) to maximize water-use efficiency; and 3) watershed development, rainwater harvesting, and groundwater recharge. These strategies help decouple rural livelihoods from monsoon volatility, ensuring stable farm incomes.