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The Hindu Editorial • April 16, 2026 • Read Original

Dry days: On rainfall deficit forecast

As India faces a rainfall deficit, it must make preparations for the worst

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The Hindu Read Original
10 min read

Analysis of editorial from The Hindu newspaper on April 16, 2026

Dry days: On rainfall deficit forecast

As India faces a rainfall deficit, it must make preparations for the worst

Rainfall DeficitIMD ForecastEl NinoAgricultural PreparationMonsoon ShortfallIndian Ocean Dipole
Sentences
Sentence 1 of 16
English Original

After the crest, the trough is inevitable.

Simple Present Adjunct + S + V + C Main Clause Simple Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct Additional info
After the crest
Following the highest point of success or plenty
Subject Who/What
the trough
The lowest point, representing a period of decline or less rainfall
Verb What is happening
is
Is (linking the subject to its state)
Complement Completes meaning
inevitable
Something that cannot be avoided and is sure to happen
Sentence 2 of 16
English Original

Following two years of surplus rainfall, India is likely staring at a significant shortfall in the coming monsoon.

Present Continuous Adjunct + S + V + O + Adjunct Main Clause Simple Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct Additional info
Following two years of surplus rainfall
After having two years with more rain than usual
Subject Who/What
India
Our country, which depends heavily on monsoon rains
Verb What is happening
is likely staring at
Is probably going to face or experience
Object What receives action
a significant shortfall
A large and important lack of the expected amount of rain
Adjunct Additional info
in the coming monsoon
In the next rainy season (usually June to September)
Sentence 3 of 16
English Original

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its April forecast has predicted an 8% deficit, or “below normal” rainfall, coming June-September.

Present Perfect S + Adjunct + V + O + Adjunct Main Clause Simple Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Subject Who/What
The India Meteorological Department (IMD)
The government agency responsible for weather forecasting and seismology
Adjunct Additional info
in its April forecast
In the prediction made during the month of April
Verb What is happening
has predicted
Has stated what is likely to happen in the future
Object What receives action
an 8% deficit, or “below normal” rainfall
A situation where there is 8% less rain than the long-term average
Adjunct Additional info
coming June-September
During the upcoming months of June to September, which is the main monsoon season
Context and Background
IMD Rainfall Categorization

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) categorizes rainfall based on the ‘Long Period Average’ (LPA). ‘Below normal’ rainfall is defined as being between 90% and 96% of the LPA. A deficit of more than 10% (below 90% of LPA) is categorized as ‘deficient’ rainfall, which often indicates drought conditions.

Sentence 4 of 16
English Original

There is a 5% margin of error in this estimate but going by IMD’s track record, there are many more times it has expected a ‘normal’ monsoon only for India to end up with a drought than it has forecast a drought and been proved wrong.

Simple Present Compound Sentence Independent Clauses Compound Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Subject Who/What
There
A dummy subject used to introduce the existence of something
Verb What is happening
is
Exists or is present
Complement Completes meaning
a 5% margin of error in this estimate
The possibility that the 8% prediction could be wrong by up to 5%
Adjunct Additional info
but going by IMD’s track record
However, if we look at how accurate the IMD has been in the past
Subject Who/What
there
A dummy subject introducing the second point
Verb What is happening
are
Exist (plural because it refers to multiple ‘times’)
Complement Completes meaning
many more times it has expected a ‘normal’ monsoon only for India to end up with a drought than it has forecast a drought and been proved wrong
Historical data shows that IMD often predicts a normal monsoon when a drought eventually happens, which is more common than them wrongly predicting a drought that doesn’t occur
Sentence 5 of 16
English Original

In fact, when IMD warns of a deficit in April, history shows that India often experiences a drought.

Simple Present Adjunct + Adjunct + S + V + O Main Clause with Subordinate Clause Complex Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct Additional info
In fact
Truly or actually (used to emphasize a point)
Adjunct Additional info
when IMD warns of a deficit in April
At the time when the weather office gives a warning about low rain in April
Subject Who/What
history
The record of what has happened in the past years
Verb What is happening
shows
Gives proof or evidence of a pattern
Object What receives action
that India often experiences a drought
The fact that our country usually suffers from water shortages in such years
Sentence 6 of 16
English Original

The agency, in its official lexicon, never uses the term ‘drought’ and only refers to a deficit below 90% as “deficient”.

Simple Present S + Adjunct + V1 + O1 + V2 + O2 + C Main Clause with Compound Predicate Simple Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Subject Who/What
The agency
The India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Adjunct Additional info
in its official lexicon
In the specific language or set of words it uses for formal work
Verb What is happening
never uses
Does not at any time use (a particular word)
Object What receives action
the term ‘drought’
The specific word ‘drought’ (prolonged lack of rain)
Verb What is happening
and only refers to
And only uses a different word to describe
Object What receives action
a deficit below 90%
A situation where rainfall is less than 90% of the normal average
Complement Completes meaning
as “deficient”
Using the word ‘deficient’ instead of ‘drought’
Sentence 7 of 16
English Original

In the April of 2015, IMD issued a “below normal monsoon” forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season, predicting seasonal rainfall at 93% of the long-term average, again, ‘below normal.’

Simple Past Adjunct + S + Verb + Object + Adjunct Main Clause followed by Participle Phrase Simple Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct Additional info
In the April of 2015
During April month in the year 2015
Subject Who/What
IMD
India Meteorological Department
Verb What is happening
issued
Officially published or sent out
Object What receives action
a “below normal monsoon” forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season
A prediction that the June-September rains in 2015 would be less than the usual average
Adjunct Additional info
predicting seasonal rainfall at 93% of the long-term average, again, ‘below normal.’
Estimating that the total rain would be only 93% of what is normally expected over many years
Sentence 8 of 16
English Original

India ended up much worse at 86% Long Period Average (LPA).

Simple Past S + V + C + Adjunct Main Clause Simple Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Subject Who/What
India
The nation as a whole in terms of rainfall received
Verb What is happening
ended up
Finally reached a certain state or result
Complement Completes meaning
much worse
A lot more negative or severe than the original prediction
Adjunct Additional info
at 86% Long Period Average (LPA)
Receiving only 86% of the average rain recorded over the last 50 years
Context and Background
What is Long Period Average (LPA)?

The Long Period Average (LPA) is the average rainfall recorded over a period of 50 years (currently 1971-2020). It serves as a benchmark for the IMD to categorize monsoon performance. Rainfall below 90% of the LPA is officially classified as ‘deficient’.

Sentence 9 of 16
English Original

IMD expects a depressed monsoon this time in the second crucial half of the monsoon (August and September) on the back of weather models indicating an El Nino, the cyclical phenomenon where a heating of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean beyond 1 degree Celsius has corresponded nine out 16 times since 1950 to a deficient monsoon.

Simple Present S + V + O + Multiple Adjuncts Main Clause with Appositive Adjunct Complex Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Subject Who/What
IMD
The India Meteorological Department
Verb What is happening
expects
Believes something will happen based on current information
Object What receives action
a depressed monsoon
A rainy season with much less rainfall than usual
Adjunct Additional info
this time
In the current year/season
Adjunct Additional info
in the second crucial half of the monsoon (August and September)
During the last two months of the monsoon, which are very important for crops
Adjunct Additional info
on the back of weather models indicating an El Nino
Based on computer simulations that show an El Nino pattern developing
Adjunct Additional info
the cyclical phenomenon where a heating of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean beyond 1 degree Celsius has corresponded nine out 16 times since 1950 to a deficient monsoon
A repeating weather event where the Pacific Ocean gets warmer, which historically causes poor rain in India about 56% of the time
Context and Background
What is El Nino?

El Nino is a climate pattern that involves the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts the global wind patterns, often leading to suppressed rainfall and drought in India. Historically, out of 16 El Nino years since 1950, 9 have resulted in deficient monsoons for India.

Sentence 10 of 16
English Original

The timing of an El Nino matters.

Simple Present S + V Main Clause Simple Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Subject Who/What
The timing of an El Nino
The specific months during which the El Nino warming happens
Verb What is happening
matters
Is important or has an effect on the outcome
Sentence 11 of 16
English Original

If the temperature rise happens outside of the monsoon months, its impact on the monsoon is not as threatening.

Simple Present Adjunct + S + V + C Main Clause with Conditional Subordinate Clause Complex Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct Additional info
If the temperature rise happens outside of the monsoon months
If the ocean water gets warmer before June or after September
Subject Who/What
its impact on the monsoon
How much the El Nino warming affects the Indian rainy season
Verb What is happening
is
Is (linking verb)
Complement Completes meaning
not as threatening
Not as dangerous or worrisome as it would be otherwise
Sentence 12 of 16
English Original

In 2019, for instance, the IMD expected less than normal rainfall in April because El Nino-like conditions were on the horizon.

Simple Past Adjunct + S + V + O + Adjunct + Adjunct Main Clause with Subordinate Reason Clause Complex Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct Additional info
In 2019, for instance
For example, looking back at the year 2019
Subject Who/What
the IMD
The India Meteorological Department
Verb What is happening
expected
Regarded as likely to happen
Object What receives action
less than normal rainfall
Rainfall that is below the long-term average
Adjunct Additional info
in April
During the month of April
Adjunct Additional info
because El Nino-like conditions were on the horizon
Due to signs that an El Nino event was starting to develop
Sentence 13 of 16
English Original

Paradoxically, India ended up with above normal rainfall because that heating was not as strong as expected.

Simple Past Adjunct + S + V + O + Adjunct Main Clause with Subordinate Reason Clause Complex Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct Additional info
Paradoxically
In a way that is surprising because it is the opposite of what was expected
Subject Who/What
India
The country and its overall rainfall record
Verb What is happening
ended up with
Finally resulted in or obtained
Object What receives action
above normal rainfall
More rain than the usual benchmark (LPA)
Adjunct Additional info
because that heating was not as strong as expected
Due to the fact that the Pacific Ocean warming was weaker than predicted
Sentence 14 of 16
English Original

This year too, the IMD expects the Indian Ocean Dipole would counter the desiccating impact of the El Nino.

Simple Present Adjunct + S + V + O Main Clause with Noun Clause Object Complex Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct Additional info
This year too
Similarly to what happened in some previous years
Subject Who/What
the IMD
The India Meteorological Department
Verb What is happening
expects
Looks forward to or hopes for a certain outcome based on patterns
Object What receives action
the Indian Ocean Dipole would counter the desiccating impact of the El Nino
The hope that a specific ocean temperature pattern in the Indian Ocean will balance out the dry weather caused by El Nino
Context and Background
What is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)?

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon defined by the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. A ‘positive’ IOD often brings more rain to India and can sometimes offset or ‘counter’ the negative impact of an El Nino, leading to a better monsoon than predicted.

Sentence 15 of 16
English Original

In a year where the most concerning clouds as of now are the war-like ones over West Asia, shortage of gas and fertilizer could worsen farmer sentiment on top of the weak rains.

Conditional / Present Adjunct + S + V + O + Adjunct Main Clause with Relative Adjunct Clause Complex Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct Additional info
In a year where the most concerning clouds as of now are the war-like ones over West Asia
During a time when global tensions and war in the Middle East (West Asia) are the biggest worries
Subject Who/What
shortage of gas and fertilizer
Lack of enough fuel (gas) and chemicals needed for farming
Verb What is happening
could worsen
Might make a situation even more negative or difficult
Object What receives action
farmer sentiment
The overall mood, confidence, or outlook of people who do farming
Adjunct Additional info
on top of the weak rains
In addition to the problem of having very little rain
Context and Background
West Asia Conflict and Indian Agriculture

West Asia (Middle East) is a major source of energy (natural gas) and raw materials for fertilizers (like rock phosphate and potash) for India. Conflict in this region disrupts shipping routes and production, leading to higher prices and shortages. When combined with a poor monsoon, this creates a ‘double blow’ for farmers, as both nature and market conditions turn unfavorable.

Sentence 16 of 16
English Original

The government should immediately begin preparations to shore up fertilizer stocks, equitable water distribution, particularly in reservoirs that are likely to be stressed, and provide timely advisories to farmers on optimal sowing practices.

Modal / Present S + V + O Main Clause Simple Sentence
Phrase Breakdown
Subject Who/What
The government
The central and state administrations responsible for policy
Verb What is happening
should immediately begin
Must start right now without any delay
Object What receives action
preparations to shore up fertilizer stocks, equitable water distribution, particularly in reservoirs that are likely to be stressed, and provide timely advisories to farmers on optimal sowing practices
Getting ready by collecting fertilizers, sharing water fairly, and giving farmers good advice on when to plant their crops
Sentence 1 of 16
Sentence 1 of 16
After the crest, the trough is inevitable.
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct
After the crest
Following the highest point of success or plenty
Subject
the trough
The lowest point, representing a period of decline or less rainfall
Verb
is
Is (linking the subject to its state)
Complement
inevitable
Something that cannot be avoided and is sure to happen
Sentence 2 of 16
Following two years of surplus rainfall, India is likely staring at a significant shortfall in the coming monsoon.
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct
Following two years of surplus rainfall
After having two years with more rain than usual
Subject
India
Our country, which depends heavily on monsoon rains
Verb
is likely staring at
Is probably going to face or experience
Object
a significant shortfall
A large and important lack of the expected amount of rain
Adjunct
in the coming monsoon
In the next rainy season (usually June to September)
Sentence 3 of 16
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its April forecast has predicted an 8% deficit, or “below normal” rainfall, coming June-September.
Phrase Breakdown
Subject
The India Meteorological Department (IMD)
The government agency responsible for weather forecasting and seismology
Adjunct
in its April forecast
In the prediction made during the month of April
Verb
has predicted
Has stated what is likely to happen in the future
Object
an 8% deficit, or “below normal” rainfall
A situation where there is 8% less rain than the long-term average
Adjunct
coming June-September
During the upcoming months of June to September, which is the main monsoon season
Sentence 4 of 16
There is a 5% margin of error in this estimate but going by IMD’s track record, there are many more times it has expected a ‘normal’ monsoon only for India to end up with a drought than it has forecast a drought and been proved wrong.
Phrase Breakdown
Subject
There
A dummy subject used to introduce the existence of something
Verb
is
Exists or is present
Complement
a 5% margin of error in this estimate
The possibility that the 8% prediction could be wrong by up to 5%
Adjunct
but going by IMD’s track record
However, if we look at how accurate the IMD has been in the past
Subject
there
A dummy subject introducing the second point
Verb
are
Exist (plural because it refers to multiple ‘times’)
Complement
many more times it has expected a ‘normal’ monsoon only for India to end up with a drought than it has forecast a drought and been proved wrong
Historical data shows that IMD often predicts a normal monsoon when a drought eventually happens, which is more common than them wrongly predicting a drought that doesn’t occur
Sentence 5 of 16
In fact, when IMD warns of a deficit in April, history shows that India often experiences a drought.
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct
In fact
Truly or actually (used to emphasize a point)
Adjunct
when IMD warns of a deficit in April
At the time when the weather office gives a warning about low rain in April
Subject
history
The record of what has happened in the past years
Verb
shows
Gives proof or evidence of a pattern
Object
that India often experiences a drought
The fact that our country usually suffers from water shortages in such years
Sentence 6 of 16
The agency, in its official lexicon, never uses the term ‘drought’ and only refers to a deficit below 90% as “deficient”.
Phrase Breakdown
Subject
The agency
The India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Adjunct
in its official lexicon
In the specific language or set of words it uses for formal work
Verb
never uses
Does not at any time use (a particular word)
Object
the term ‘drought’
The specific word ‘drought’ (prolonged lack of rain)
Verb
and only refers to
And only uses a different word to describe
Object
a deficit below 90%
A situation where rainfall is less than 90% of the normal average
Complement
as “deficient”
Using the word ‘deficient’ instead of ‘drought’
Sentence 7 of 16
In the April of 2015, IMD issued a “below normal monsoon” forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season, predicting seasonal rainfall at 93% of the long-term average, again, ‘below normal.’
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct
In the April of 2015
During April month in the year 2015
Subject
IMD
India Meteorological Department
Verb
issued
Officially published or sent out
Object
a “below normal monsoon” forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season
A prediction that the June-September rains in 2015 would be less than the usual average
Adjunct
predicting seasonal rainfall at 93% of the long-term average, again, ‘below normal.’
Estimating that the total rain would be only 93% of what is normally expected over many years
Sentence 8 of 16
India ended up much worse at 86% Long Period Average (LPA).
Phrase Breakdown
Subject
India
The nation as a whole in terms of rainfall received
Verb
ended up
Finally reached a certain state or result
Complement
much worse
A lot more negative or severe than the original prediction
Adjunct
at 86% Long Period Average (LPA)
Receiving only 86% of the average rain recorded over the last 50 years
Sentence 9 of 16
IMD expects a depressed monsoon this time in the second crucial half of the monsoon (August and September) on the back of weather models indicating an El Nino, the cyclical phenomenon where a heating of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean beyond 1 degree Celsius has corresponded nine out 16 times since 1950 to a deficient monsoon.
Phrase Breakdown
Subject
IMD
The India Meteorological Department
Verb
expects
Believes something will happen based on current information
Object
a depressed monsoon
A rainy season with much less rainfall than usual
Adjunct
this time
In the current year/season
Adjunct
in the second crucial half of the monsoon (August and September)
During the last two months of the monsoon, which are very important for crops
Adjunct
on the back of weather models indicating an El Nino
Based on computer simulations that show an El Nino pattern developing
Adjunct
the cyclical phenomenon where a heating of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean beyond 1 degree Celsius has corresponded nine out 16 times since 1950 to a deficient monsoon
A repeating weather event where the Pacific Ocean gets warmer, which historically causes poor rain in India about 56% of the time
Sentence 10 of 16
The timing of an El Nino matters.
Phrase Breakdown
Subject
The timing of an El Nino
The specific months during which the El Nino warming happens
Verb
matters
Is important or has an effect on the outcome
Sentence 11 of 16
If the temperature rise happens outside of the monsoon months, its impact on the monsoon is not as threatening.
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct
If the temperature rise happens outside of the monsoon months
If the ocean water gets warmer before June or after September
Subject
its impact on the monsoon
How much the El Nino warming affects the Indian rainy season
Verb
is
Is (linking verb)
Complement
not as threatening
Not as dangerous or worrisome as it would be otherwise
Sentence 12 of 16
In 2019, for instance, the IMD expected less than normal rainfall in April because El Nino-like conditions were on the horizon.
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct
In 2019, for instance
For example, looking back at the year 2019
Subject
the IMD
The India Meteorological Department
Verb
expected
Regarded as likely to happen
Object
less than normal rainfall
Rainfall that is below the long-term average
Adjunct
in April
During the month of April
Adjunct
because El Nino-like conditions were on the horizon
Due to signs that an El Nino event was starting to develop
Sentence 13 of 16
Paradoxically, India ended up with above normal rainfall because that heating was not as strong as expected.
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct
Paradoxically
In a way that is surprising because it is the opposite of what was expected
Subject
India
The country and its overall rainfall record
Verb
ended up with
Finally resulted in or obtained
Object
above normal rainfall
More rain than the usual benchmark (LPA)
Adjunct
because that heating was not as strong as expected
Due to the fact that the Pacific Ocean warming was weaker than predicted
Sentence 14 of 16
This year too, the IMD expects the Indian Ocean Dipole would counter the desiccating impact of the El Nino.
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct
This year too
Similarly to what happened in some previous years
Subject
the IMD
The India Meteorological Department
Verb
expects
Looks forward to or hopes for a certain outcome based on patterns
Object
the Indian Ocean Dipole would counter the desiccating impact of the El Nino
The hope that a specific ocean temperature pattern in the Indian Ocean will balance out the dry weather caused by El Nino
Sentence 15 of 16
In a year where the most concerning clouds as of now are the war-like ones over West Asia, shortage of gas and fertilizer could worsen farmer sentiment on top of the weak rains.
Phrase Breakdown
Adjunct
In a year where the most concerning clouds as of now are the war-like ones over West Asia
During a time when global tensions and war in the Middle East (West Asia) are the biggest worries
Subject
shortage of gas and fertilizer
Lack of enough fuel (gas) and chemicals needed for farming
Verb
could worsen
Might make a situation even more negative or difficult
Object
farmer sentiment
The overall mood, confidence, or outlook of people who do farming
Adjunct
on top of the weak rains
In addition to the problem of having very little rain
Sentence 16 of 16
The government should immediately begin preparations to shore up fertilizer stocks, equitable water distribution, particularly in reservoirs that are likely to be stressed, and provide timely advisories to farmers on optimal sowing practices.
Phrase Breakdown
Subject
The government
The central and state administrations responsible for policy
Verb
should immediately begin
Must start right now without any delay
Object
preparations to shore up fertilizer stocks, equitable water distribution, particularly in reservoirs that are likely to be stressed, and provide timely advisories to farmers on optimal sowing practices
Getting ready by collecting fertilizers, sharing water fairly, and giving farmers good advice on when to plant their crops

Reading Comprehension

Practice questions based on this editorial

Reading Comprehension - Rainfall Deficit Forecast

Practice reading comprehension questions based on the editorial about India's monsoon forecast and the impact of El Nino.

5 Questions Passing: 70%

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