The Hindu Editorial • April 16, 2026 • Read Original

Dry days: On rainfall deficit forecast

As India faces a rainfall deficit, it must make preparations for the worst

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Analysis of editorial from The Hindu newspaper on April 16, 2026

Dry days: On rainfall deficit forecast

As India faces a rainfall deficit, it must make preparations for the worst

Rainfall DeficitIMD ForecastEl NinoAgricultural PreparationMonsoon ShortfallIndian Ocean Dipole

Sentences

Sentence 1 of 16

English Original

After the crest, the trough is inevitable.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

After the

Following the highest point of success or plenty

Part 2

the

The lowest point, representing a period of decline or less rainfall

Part 3

Is (linking the subject to its state)

Part 4

Something that cannot be avoided and is sure to happen

Sentence 2 of 16

English Original

Following two years of surplus rainfall, India is likely staring at a significant shortfall in the coming monsoon.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Following two years of rainfall

After having two years with more rain than usual

Part 2

India

Our country, which depends heavily on monsoon rains

Part 3

is likely staring at

Is probably going to face or experience

Part 4

A large and important lack of the expected amount of rain

Part 5

in the coming monsoon

In the next rainy season (usually June to September)

Sentence 3 of 16

English Original

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its April forecast has predicted an 8% deficit, or “below normal” rainfall, coming June-September.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The India Meteorological Department (IMD)

The government agency responsible for weather forecasting and seismology

Part 2

in its April

In the prediction made during the month of April

Part 3

has predicted

Has stated what is likely to happen in the future

Part 4

an 8% , or “below normal” rainfall

A situation where there is 8% less rain than the long-term average

Part 5

coming June-September

During the upcoming months of June to September, which is the main monsoon season

Context and Background

IMD Rainfall Categorization

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) categorizes rainfall based on the ‘Long Period Average’ (LPA). ‘Below normal’ rainfall is defined as being between 90% and 96% of the LPA. A deficit of more than 10% (below 90% of LPA) is categorized as ‘deficient’ rainfall, which often indicates drought conditions.

Sentence 4 of 16

English Original

There is a 5% margin of error in this estimate but going by IMD’s track record, there are many more times it has expected a ‘normal’ monsoon only for India to end up with a drought than it has forecast a drought and been proved wrong.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

There

A dummy subject used to introduce the existence of something

Part 2

Exists or is present

Part 3

a 5% in this estimate

The possibility that the 8% prediction could be wrong by up to 5%

Part 4

but going by IMD’s

However, if we look at how accurate the IMD has been in the past

Part 5

there

A dummy subject introducing the second point

Part 6

are

Exist (plural because it refers to multiple ‘times’)

Part 7

many more times it has expected a ‘normal’ only for India to end up with a than it has forecast a and been proved wrong

Historical data shows that IMD often predicts a normal monsoon when a drought eventually happens, which is more common than them wrongly predicting a drought that doesn’t occur

Sentence 5 of 16

English Original

In fact, when IMD warns of a deficit in April, history shows that India often experiences a drought.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

In fact

Truly or actually (used to emphasize a point)

Part 2

when IMD of a deficit in April

At the time when the weather office gives a warning about low rain in April

Part 3

history

The record of what has happened in the past years

Part 4

shows

Gives proof or evidence of a pattern

Part 5

that India often a drought

The fact that our country usually suffers from water shortages in such years

Sentence 6 of 16

English Original

The agency, in its official lexicon, never uses the term ‘drought’ and only refers to a deficit below 90% as “deficient”.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The

The India Meteorological Department (IMD)

Part 2

in its

In the specific language or set of words it uses for formal work

Part 3

never uses

Does not at any time use (a particular word)

Part 4

the term ‘drought’

The specific word ‘drought’ (prolonged lack of rain)

Part 5

and only refers to

And only uses a different word to describe

Part 6

a deficit below 90%

A situation where rainfall is less than 90% of the normal average

Part 7

as “”

Using the word ‘deficient’ instead of ‘drought’

Sentence 7 of 16

English Original

In the April of 2015, IMD issued a “below normal monsoon” forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season, predicting seasonal rainfall at 93% of the long-term average, again, ‘below normal.’

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

In the April of 2015

During April month in the year 2015

Part 2

IMD

India Meteorological Department

Part 3

Officially published or sent out

Part 4

a “below normal monsoon” forecast for the 2015 season

A prediction that the June-September rains in 2015 would be less than the usual average

Part 5

predicting rainfall at 93% of the , again, ‘below normal.’

Estimating that the total rain would be only 93% of what is normally expected over many years

Sentence 8 of 16

English Original

India ended up much worse at 86% Long Period Average (LPA).

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

India

The nation as a whole in terms of rainfall received

Part 2

Finally reached a certain state or result

Part 3

much worse

A lot more negative or severe than the original prediction

Part 4

at 86% Long Period Average (LPA)

Receiving only 86% of the average rain recorded over the last 50 years

Context and Background

What is Long Period Average (LPA)?

The Long Period Average (LPA) is the average rainfall recorded over a period of 50 years (currently 1971-2020). It serves as a benchmark for the IMD to categorize monsoon performance. Rainfall below 90% of the LPA is officially classified as ‘deficient’.

Sentence 9 of 16

English Original

IMD expects a depressed monsoon this time in the second crucial half of the monsoon (August and September) on the back of weather models indicating an El Nino, the cyclical phenomenon where a heating of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean beyond 1 degree Celsius has corresponded nine out 16 times since 1950 to a deficient monsoon.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

IMD

The India Meteorological Department

Part 2

expects

Believes something will happen based on current information

Part 3

a monsoon

A rainy season with much less rainfall than usual

Part 4

this time

In the current year/season

Part 5

in the second half of the monsoon (August and September)

During the last two months of the monsoon, which are very important for crops

Part 6

on the back of weather an El Nino

Based on computer simulations that show an El Nino pattern developing

Part 7

the where a heating of the central Pacific Ocean beyond 1 degree Celsius has nine out 16 times since 1950 to a deficient monsoon

A repeating weather event where the Pacific Ocean gets warmer, which historically causes poor rain in India about 56% of the time

Context and Background

What is El Nino?

El Nino is a climate pattern that involves the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts the global wind patterns, often leading to suppressed rainfall and drought in India. Historically, out of 16 El Nino years since 1950, 9 have resulted in deficient monsoons for India.

Sentence 10 of 16

English Original

The timing of an El Nino matters.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The of an El Nino

The specific months during which the El Nino warming happens

Part 2

Is important or has an effect on the outcome

Sentence 11 of 16

English Original

If the temperature rise happens outside of the monsoon months, its impact on the monsoon is not as threatening.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

If the temperature rise happens outside of the monsoon months

If the ocean water gets warmer before June or after September

Part 2

its on the monsoon

How much the El Nino warming affects the Indian rainy season

Part 3

Is (linking verb)

Part 4

not as

Not as dangerous or worrisome as it would be otherwise

Sentence 12 of 16

English Original

In 2019, for instance, the IMD expected less than normal rainfall in April because El Nino-like conditions were on the horizon.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

In 2019, for instance

For example, looking back at the year 2019

Part 2

the IMD

The India Meteorological Department

Part 3

expected

Regarded as likely to happen

Part 4

less than normal rainfall

Rainfall that is below the long-term average

Part 5

in April

During the month of April

Part 6

because El Nino-like were

Due to signs that an El Nino event was starting to develop

Sentence 13 of 16

English Original

Paradoxically, India ended up with above normal rainfall because that heating was not as strong as expected.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

In a way that is surprising because it is the opposite of what was expected

Part 2

India

The country and its overall rainfall record

Part 3

ended up with

Finally resulted in or obtained

Part 4

above normal rainfall

More rain than the usual benchmark (LPA)

Part 5

because that was not as strong as expected

Due to the fact that the Pacific Ocean warming was weaker than predicted

Sentence 14 of 16

English Original

This year too, the IMD expects the Indian Ocean Dipole would counter the desiccating impact of the El Nino.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

This year too

Similarly to what happened in some previous years

Part 2

the IMD

The India Meteorological Department

Part 3

expects

Looks forward to or hopes for a certain outcome based on patterns

Part 4

the would the impact of the El Nino

The hope that a specific ocean temperature pattern in the Indian Ocean will balance out the dry weather caused by El Nino

Context and Background

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)?

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon defined by the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. A ‘positive’ IOD often brings more rain to India and can sometimes offset or ‘counter’ the negative impact of an El Nino, leading to a better monsoon than predicted.

Sentence 15 of 16

English Original

In a year where the most concerning clouds as of now are the war-like ones over West Asia, shortage of gas and fertilizer could worsen farmer sentiment on top of the weak rains.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

In a year where the most as of now are the war-like ones over West Asia

During a time when global tensions and war in the Middle East (West Asia) are the biggest worries

Part 2

of gas and fertilizer

Lack of enough fuel (gas) and chemicals needed for farming

Part 3

could worsen

Might make a situation even more negative or difficult

Part 4

farmer

The overall mood, confidence, or outlook of people who do farming

Part 5

on top of the weak rains

In addition to the problem of having very little rain

Context and Background

West Asia Conflict and Indian Agriculture

West Asia (Middle East) is a major source of energy (natural gas) and raw materials for fertilizers (like rock phosphate and potash) for India. Conflict in this region disrupts shipping routes and production, leading to higher prices and shortages. When combined with a poor monsoon, this creates a ‘double blow’ for farmers, as both nature and market conditions turn unfavorable.

Sentence 16 of 16

English Original

The government should immediately begin preparations to shore up fertilizer stocks, equitable water distribution, particularly in reservoirs that are likely to be stressed, and provide timely advisories to farmers on optimal sowing practices.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The government

The central and state administrations responsible for policy

Part 2

should immediately begin

Must start right now without any delay

Part 3

preparations to fertilizer stocks, water distribution, particularly in that are likely to be , and provide timely to farmers on sowing practices

Getting ready by collecting fertilizers, sharing water fairly, and giving farmers good advice on when to plant their crops

Sentence 1 of 16

Sentences Breakdown

Editorial Summary

5-Point Summary

1 After two years of surplus rainfall, India is now projected to face a significant rainfall deficit in the upcoming monsoon season.
2 The IMD predicts an 8% shortfall, but historical trends suggest the actual outcome could be as severe as a drought.
3 The main cause for concern is the El Nino phenomenon, which involves the heating of the Pacific Ocean and often correlates with poor Indian monsoons.
4 Global geopolitical tensions in West Asia could further complicate matters by affecting the supply of essential resources like gas and fertilizers.
5 The government needs to act immediately by shoring up fertilizer stocks and ensuring equitable water distribution to support farmers.

Tone of the Editorial

Analytical

Why this tone?

The editorial provides a detailed examination of the IMD’s forecast by comparing it with historical data and explaining complex meteorological factors like El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole. It objectively assesses the risks while offering practical suggestions for government intervention, making the tone primarily analytical and cautionary.

Sentence 1 of 16

After the crest, the trough is inevitable.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

After the crest

Following the highest point of success or plenty

Part 2

the trough

The lowest point, representing a period of decline or less rainfall

Part 3

Is (linking the subject to its state)

Part 4

inevitable

Something that cannot be avoided and is sure to happen

Sentence 2 of 16

Following two years of surplus rainfall, India is likely staring at a significant shortfall in the coming monsoon.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Following two years of surplus rainfall

After having two years with more rain than usual

Part 2

India

Our country, which depends heavily on monsoon rains

Part 3

is likely staring at

Is probably going to face or experience

Part 4

a significant shortfall

A large and important lack of the expected amount of rain

Part 5

in the coming monsoon

In the next rainy season (usually June to September)

Sentence 3 of 16

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its April forecast has predicted an 8% deficit, or “below normal” rainfall, coming June-September.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The India Meteorological Department (IMD)

The government agency responsible for weather forecasting and seismology

Part 2

in its April forecast

In the prediction made during the month of April

Part 3

has predicted

Has stated what is likely to happen in the future

Part 4

an 8% deficit, or “below normal” rainfall

A situation where there is 8% less rain than the long-term average

Part 5

coming June-September

During the upcoming months of June to September, which is the main monsoon season

Sentence 4 of 16

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

There

A dummy subject used to introduce the existence of something

Part 2

Exists or is present

Part 3

a 5% margin of error in this estimate

The possibility that the 8% prediction could be wrong by up to 5%

Part 4

but going by IMD’s track record

However, if we look at how accurate the IMD has been in the past

Part 5

there

A dummy subject introducing the second point

Part 6

are

Exist (plural because it refers to multiple ‘times’)

Part 7

many more times it has expected a ‘normal’ monsoon only for India to end up with a drought than it has forecast a drought and been proved wrong

Historical data shows that IMD often predicts a normal monsoon when a drought eventually happens, which is more common than them wrongly predicting a drought that doesn’t occur

Sentence 5 of 16

In fact, when IMD warns of a deficit in April, history shows that India often experiences a drought.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

In fact

Truly or actually (used to emphasize a point)

Part 2

when IMD warns of a deficit in April

At the time when the weather office gives a warning about low rain in April

Part 3

history

The record of what has happened in the past years

Part 4

shows

Gives proof or evidence of a pattern

Part 5

that India often experiences a drought

The fact that our country usually suffers from water shortages in such years

Sentence 6 of 16

The agency, in its official lexicon, never uses the term ‘drought’ and only refers to a deficit below 90% as “deficient”.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The agency

The India Meteorological Department (IMD)

Part 2

in its official lexicon

In the specific language or set of words it uses for formal work

Part 3

never uses

Does not at any time use (a particular word)

Part 4

the term ‘drought’

The specific word ‘drought’ (prolonged lack of rain)

Part 5

and only refers to

And only uses a different word to describe

Part 6

a deficit below 90%

A situation where rainfall is less than 90% of the normal average

Part 7

as “deficient”

Using the word ‘deficient’ instead of ‘drought’

Sentence 7 of 16

In the April of 2015, IMD issued a “below normal monsoon” forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season, predicting seasonal rainfall at 93% of the long-term average, again, ‘below normal.’

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

In the April of 2015

During April month in the year 2015

Part 2

IMD

India Meteorological Department

Part 3

issued

Officially published or sent out

Part 4

a “below normal monsoon” forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season

A prediction that the June-September rains in 2015 would be less than the usual average

Part 5

predicting seasonal rainfall at 93% of the long-term average, again, ‘below normal.’

Estimating that the total rain would be only 93% of what is normally expected over many years

Sentence 8 of 16

India ended up much worse at 86% Long Period Average (LPA).

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

India

The nation as a whole in terms of rainfall received

Part 2

ended up

Finally reached a certain state or result

Part 3

much worse

A lot more negative or severe than the original prediction

Part 4

at 86% Long Period Average (LPA)

Receiving only 86% of the average rain recorded over the last 50 years

Sentence 9 of 16

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

IMD

The India Meteorological Department

Part 2

expects

Believes something will happen based on current information

Part 3

a depressed monsoon

A rainy season with much less rainfall than usual

Part 4

this time

In the current year/season

Part 5

in the second crucial half of the monsoon (August and September)

During the last two months of the monsoon, which are very important for crops

Part 6

on the back of weather models indicating an El Nino

Based on computer simulations that show an El Nino pattern developing

Part 7

the cyclical phenomenon where a heating of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean beyond 1 degree Celsius has corresponded nine out 16 times since 1950 to a deficient monsoon

A repeating weather event where the Pacific Ocean gets warmer, which historically causes poor rain in India about 56% of the time

Sentence 10 of 16

The timing of an El Nino matters.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The timing of an El Nino

The specific months during which the El Nino warming happens

Part 2

matters

Is important or has an effect on the outcome

Sentence 11 of 16

If the temperature rise happens outside of the monsoon months, its impact on the monsoon is not as threatening.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

If the temperature rise happens outside of the monsoon months

If the ocean water gets warmer before June or after September

Part 2

its impact on the monsoon

How much the El Nino warming affects the Indian rainy season

Part 3

Is (linking verb)

Part 4

not as threatening

Not as dangerous or worrisome as it would be otherwise

Sentence 12 of 16

In 2019, for instance, the IMD expected less than normal rainfall in April because El Nino-like conditions were on the horizon.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

In 2019, for instance

For example, looking back at the year 2019

Part 2

the IMD

The India Meteorological Department

Part 3

expected

Regarded as likely to happen

Part 4

less than normal rainfall

Rainfall that is below the long-term average

Part 5

in April

During the month of April

Part 6

because El Nino-like conditions were on the horizon

Due to signs that an El Nino event was starting to develop

Sentence 13 of 16

Paradoxically, India ended up with above normal rainfall because that heating was not as strong as expected.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

Paradoxically

In a way that is surprising because it is the opposite of what was expected

Part 2

India

The country and its overall rainfall record

Part 3

ended up with

Finally resulted in or obtained

Part 4

above normal rainfall

More rain than the usual benchmark (LPA)

Part 5

because that heating was not as strong as expected

Due to the fact that the Pacific Ocean warming was weaker than predicted

Sentence 14 of 16

This year too, the IMD expects the Indian Ocean Dipole would counter the desiccating impact of the El Nino.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

This year too

Similarly to what happened in some previous years

Part 2

the IMD

The India Meteorological Department

Part 3

expects

Looks forward to or hopes for a certain outcome based on patterns

Part 4

the Indian Ocean Dipole would counter the desiccating impact of the El Nino

The hope that a specific ocean temperature pattern in the Indian Ocean will balance out the dry weather caused by El Nino

Sentence 15 of 16

In a year where the most concerning clouds as of now are the war-like ones over West Asia, shortage of gas and fertilizer could worsen farmer sentiment on top of the weak rains.

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

In a year where the most concerning clouds as of now are the war-like ones over West Asia

During a time when global tensions and war in the Middle East (West Asia) are the biggest worries

Part 2

shortage of gas and fertilizer

Lack of enough fuel (gas) and chemicals needed for farming

Part 3

could worsen

Might make a situation even more negative or difficult

Part 4

farmer sentiment

The overall mood, confidence, or outlook of people who do farming

Part 5

on top of the weak rains

In addition to the problem of having very little rain

Sentence 16 of 16

Sentence Breakdown

Part 1

The government

The central and state administrations responsible for policy

Part 2

should immediately begin

Must start right now without any delay

Part 3

preparations to shore up fertilizer stocks, equitable water distribution, particularly in reservoirs that are likely to be stressed, and provide timely advisories to farmers on optimal sowing practices

Getting ready by collecting fertilizers, sharing water fairly, and giving farmers good advice on when to plant their crops

Reading Comprehension

Practice questions based on this editorial

Reading Comprehension - Rainfall Deficit Forecast

Practice reading comprehension questions based on the editorial about India's monsoon forecast and the impact of El Nino.

5 Questions Passing: 70%

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Politics and Governance 7 Economy 7 International Relations 2 Science and Technology 2 Environment 3 Society 0 Security 1 Infrastructure and Energy 2 Media and Communication 1 Miscellaneous 7

Vocabulary Feeds

Challenging Vocabulary 151 Idioms and Phrases 108 Phrasal Verbs 52

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