Drought report: On southwest monsoon, drought in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh

The southwest monsoon (June to September) delivers over 70% of India’s annual precipitation and is essential for Kharif farming. Rain shadow zones in interior peninsular India, particularly North Interior Karnataka and the Rayalaseema belt of Andhra Pradesh, are acutely vulnerable to severe moisture stress whenever seasonal monsoon winds falter.

Under the Union Government’s Manual for Drought Management (revised in 2016), drought declaration requires evaluating rainfall deficiency, dry spells, and remote-sensing indices, followed by mandatory on-ground verification (ground-truthing). Only when drought is officially classified as ‘severe’ can a State Government submit a memorandum seeking financial assistance from the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF), supplementing its State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF).

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) classifies monsoon rainfall into distinct categories: departures within ±19% of the Long Period Average (LPA) are deemed ‘normal’, while shortages between -20% and -59% fall into the ‘deficient’ category. A 35% deficit in Karnataka indicates severe precipitation failure that deeply impacts rain-fed agriculture.

Karnataka has 240 administrative taluks across 31 districts. North Interior Karnataka is recognized as India’s second most arid zone after the Thar desert. Rain-fed crops like red gram (pigeon pea/tur), maize, and cotton suffered extreme moisture stress during crucial vegetative phases, wiping out harvests across northern and central districts.

Andhra Pradesh replaced taluks with mandals in 1985 to create smaller, closer administrative units for citizens. Out of 688 mandals across 26 districts, districts in the Rayalaseema region and parts of Coastal Andhra lie in severe rain-shadow belts. A 53% precipitation shortfall in the early kharif window resulted in unprecedented crop failure, forcing official drought declarations across 388 mandals.

Unlike seasonal crops that can be re-sown in the next rainfall cycle, horticulture crops (such as citrus, mango, pomegranate, and banana orchards widely cultivated in Andhra Pradesh) represent long-term capital investments taking years to mature. Severe soil moisture deficits can permanently destroy root systems, causing multi-year financial losses for orchard farmers.

Under Ministry of Home Affairs guidelines, ‘input subsidy’ is the primary form of direct financial assistance disbursed to farmers suffering crop loss of 33% or more due to declared natural calamities. States often demand revisions to these per-hectare assistance caps, pointing out that statutory SDRF/NDRF rates fall well short of actual expenditure incurred by farmers on seeds, diesel, and agricultural labor.

Under India’s National Water Policy, drinking water holds topmost priority during shortages, followed by irrigation and industrial requirements. State contingency drought plans focus on funding protective irrigation through tankers to keep dying horticulture orchards alive, while restricting reservoir and tank reserves exclusively for human and livestock consumption.

The year 2015 witnessed a massive drought across peninsular and central India, driven by one of the strongest El Niño events in recorded history, causing an all-India monsoon shortfall of 14%. Comparing current precipitation shortages to 2015 highlights the exceptional severity of recent moisture deficiencies in southern states.

El Niño involves abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which alters global atmospheric circulation cells (Walker Circulation) and suppresses monsoon rain over India. Climate attribution studies use historical weather observations and high-resolution climate modeling to determine whether a drought was directly caused by El Niño, localized atmospheric dynamics, or broader climate change.

Prior to standardized national guidelines, Indian states relied on colonial-era procedures like the ‘annawari’ or ‘paisewari’ system, where local revenue officials visually estimated crop yields. Because criteria were non-standardized and prone to political pressures, states frequently overstated crop losses to extract maximum central calamity grants, generating friction between federal and state authorities.

The Ministry of Agriculture published the comprehensive Manual for Drought Management in 2009 and revised it significantly in 2016 to introduce mandatory scientific triggers, including rainfall deviation, dry spells, satellite vegetation indices, and soil moisture measurements. Concurrently, recommendations from the 14th and 15th Finance Commissions overhauled disaster financing by establishing explicit operational rules for SDRF and NDRF disbursements.

In late 2023 and early 2024, Karnataka approached the Supreme Court under Article 32, arguing that the Centre unconstitutionally delayed disbursing over ₹18,000 crore from the NDRF despite IMCT inspections confirming severe drought across 223 taluks. The Centre released ₹3,454 crore only after judicial scrutiny, spotlighting federal disputes over timely disbursement of calamity relief.

When a disaster memorandum is received from a State, the Ministry of Home Affairs constitutes an Inter-Ministerial Central Team (IMCT) comprising experts from Agriculture, Finance, Drinking Water, and Rural Development. The IMCT visits the affected districts to evaluate ground losses and submits an assessment report to a High-Level Committee (HLC) chaired by the Union Home Minister, which approves financial sanctions from the NDRF.

In most Indian States, disaster input subsidies and crop compensation are linked directly to land titles (pattas). Consequently, tenant farmers and sharecroppers, who cultivate nearly 20% to 30% of agricultural land in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka and bear 100% of the operational risk, are routinely excluded from official calamity relief, forcing them into cycles of high-interest informal debt.

Under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY - Per Drop More Crop), states provide 55% to 90% capital subsidies for drip irrigation. However, water-thirsty crops like sugarcane and paddy continue to dominate in semi-arid river basins because highly subsidized electricity and assured government procurement (MSP) incentivize water-intensive farming over dryland pulses and millets in the absence of statutory water-use quotas.

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) warns that South Asia faces higher monsoon variability, protracted dry spells, and intensified agricultural droughts. In India, agricultural risk mitigation centers around the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY). Expanding insurance penetration and resolving delays in settlement of crop-cutting experiment claims are essential for buffering farmers against recurring monsoon deficits.

India’s National Perspective Plan for interlinking rivers envisions transferring water across 30 river links (including Godavari-Krishna-Pennar-Cauvery). However, hydrologists and ecological economists warn that river interlinking entails enormous capital expenditure, ecological damage, and persistent interstate water disputes. Experts advocate for decentralized water security: rainwater harvesting, recharging local aquifers, and tailoring crop choices to local climatic limits.